American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
Equity benchmarks mustered gains for the first time this week on Thursday as investors piled into the recently-battered metal, bank and IT stocks amid expiry of monthly derivative contracts. Snapping its three-session losing streak, the 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 503.27 points or 0.94 per cent to settle at 54,252.53. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty gained 144.35 points or 0.90 per cent to end at 16,170.15.
Biden said that the Saudi Crown Prince told him he was not "personally responsible" for Khashoggi's murder.
India's growth in the last three financial years has averaged just 1.9%. It is natural to project rapid growth from this low base. Crucial to that would be the assumption that the economy has suffered no lasting damage from the pandemic, observes T N Ninan.
Supply chain constraints will keep plaguing automobile companies even though demand significantly improved resulting in a 13 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase in sales in financial year 2021-22 (FY22). Executives at auto firms fear that the Russia-Ukraine war will further dent the sector's prospects of recovery as supply chains face more disruptions. "The visibility in the supply side is so hazy that it is difficult to give even one quarter projection. But all the parameters of demand like pending bookings and enquiries are increasing.
Automobile dispatches from factories to dealerships across the country declined 23 per cent in February, as various supply-side challenges, including semiconductor shortage, and rise in vehicle prices due to the implementation of new regulations continued to impact demand scenario, industry body SIAM said on Friday. Wholesales of domestic passenger vehicles, two-wheelers and three-wheelers declined 23 per cent to 13,28,027 units last month, compared with 17,35,909 units in February 2021. Overall, passenger vehicle dispatches in February 2022 declined six per cent to 262,984 units, compared with 281,380 units in the same month of last year.
Jubilee's irresistible celebration of cinema and all its good, bad, ugly ways lives up to its title, applauds Sukanya Verma.
Bayern's Mazraoui suffers heart complications due to COVID
Mutual funds (MFs) are investing in more stocks despite the recent volatility. The industry invested in 824 companies across the listed universe as of October, according to primemfdatabase.com. The S&P BSE Sensex hit its all-time high of 62,245 that month. The index has since corrected to 57,864, around 7 per cent below the peak.
Without naming India, S&P said it expects that in regions where inflation already exceeds targets, or which are vulnerable to capital flight, central banks will be forced to raise interest rates.
Sukanya Verma lists her favourite female performers of 2022.
'This is a good time to restructure your portfolio because the sectors and stocks that performed in the last bull market may not perform as much now.'
The dreary, cold months from December to February may prove to be the undoing of many a nation as they grapple with sky-high fuel prices - a result of the Ukraine conflict and the pandemic. Many - Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China - will still pull through on the strength of their wealth or because of strong storage infrastructure. But India will have its back to the wall. Signs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rates hitting new records this winter are already evident.
'In Byculla, a lot of boys hero-worship the bhais.' 'Hamza grew up in that environment, but he got a government job.' 'And he did this so he could marry the woman he loves.' 'Now, after getting the government job, he thought he would get to bully people...' 'But bechara, he's getting bullied at work.'
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict would have nil or negligible impact on India's foreign trade, and the crisis may give domestic exporters an opportunity to ship more wheat in the global markets, sources said on Thursday. India's central pool stood at 24.2 million tonnes, twice more than the buffer and strategic needs, they said. More than a quarter of the world's wheat export comes from Russia and Ukraine.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
'Transformation of Ukraine into some kind of permanent strategic challenger, which Russia would have to contain and deter, spend a significant part of political and strategic resources on it.'
After his wide-ranging talks with Modi on the second and final day of his India visit, Johnson said the new defence and security partnership will enable India to strengthen its domestic defence industry as well as help the two countries protect vital shared interests in the Indo-Pacific.
From Covid to climate change, Shankar Acharya's look at some of the trends and events that might shape 2022.
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
India's exports may have touched an all-time high of $422 billion in 2021-22 but recession in key western markets and geo-political crisis due to the Russia-Ukraine war are expected to impact the growth of the country's outbound shipments in 2023. All the global trade promoting factors like political stability, movement of goods, adequate availability of containers and shipping lines, demand, stable currency and smooth banking systems are in disarray. Adding to the woes, COVID cases have again started rising in countries like China, Japan, South Korea and the US.
Raising slogans, members of the BRS, Left parties and some members of the Congress walked out of Lok Sabha in protest as the prime minister was speaking.
Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
Russia's war on Ukraine has sent steel prices soaring to its highest levels in the domestic market since November 2021. But there is little cheer in the industry. That's because input costs are spiralling out of control, leaving the big boys nearly as high and dry as the small, medium and secondary steel producers. Russia and Ukraine are major providers of steel and raw materials to the world.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
Poonam and Deepak kept the body parts of Anjan Das in a fridge and would dispose them of at different places in east Delhi.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
'You have to be a total anti-national bozo to shut down the Nokia plant in Sriperumbudur, which was the first large manufacturing plant for mobile phones in India.' 'Why was the unit shut down? Because of somebody's ego.'
International oil prices retreated from an over seven-year high but was still above $100 a barrel and continue to pose threat to India's inflation rate and current account deficit. While there are no supply concerns as the oil route remained open, consumers will feel the pinch when PSU oil firms start passing on the increase in international rates through a revision in petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a pause for over three-and-a-half-months in view of elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states. The government is "closely monitoring the situation" and will "take appropriate steps as and when required", a top official said. Brent crude oil surged past $105 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2014, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The minister emphasised that India will play its due role in advancing global food security and it will do so in a manner in which it upholds equity, displays compassion, and promotes social justice.
'Under National Security Advisor Ajit Kumar Doval and now Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, India began to actively work on Pakistani internal faultlines with a possibility of the break-up of Pakistan as the only solution,' observes Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
Tea planters and exporters are "extremely worried" over the possible impact on their shipments to Russia, India's second largest buyer of tea, in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Western sanctions and disruption of payments in dollars as well as transhipments to Russia are expected as a fall-out of Russia launching an attack on Ukraine on Thursday. "The Russian market for Indian tea is extremely important as there are payment issues for shipments to Iran, another vital tea export destination. "Around 18 per cent of India's tea shipments go to Russia," India Tea Association chairperson Nayantara Palchoudhuri told PTI.
Instead of conceding the demand for a cut in personal income-tax rates, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman should phase out many exemptions in both personal and corporation taxes, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
Economic recovery from the pandemic in the US has helped India achieve the $400-billion mark for exports for the first time in any fiscal year. According to the preliminary data compiled by the Department of Commerce, India exported goods worth $73 billion to the US from April 1 to March 21 - up 47 per cent, compared to last year. The US' share of exports, compared to total exports, stood at 18.2 per cent. The country is also India's largest trading partner and export destination.
Actress Angelina Jolie Pitt has strongly criticised the UN Security Council for its lack on unity and political will on resolving the Syrian crisis, stating that the powerful body has the power to address the dire situation but "those powers lie unused".
The just-concluded plenary session of the ruling Communist Party of China (CPC), headed by Xi, adopted his proposals for the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.
A genuine attempt was made to reset relations in a positive way, signalling a stepping back from the brink of conflict, much to the relief of the world, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
The Indian Navy has a big role to play in support of our strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean. The increasing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean is a matter of concern and need to be factored. Hence, the requirement of an Aircraft Carrier is a foregone conclusion, asserts Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
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